What Joe Biden’s South Carolina Victory Means.

It was a big one, but did it come in time to make a much of a difference on Super Tuesday?

Image for post
Image for post
Photo via Joe Biden on Instagram

So, Joe Biden won the South Carolina primary.

It was definitely a crushing victory that shouldn’t be ignored, and a setback to the momentum that Bernie has been enjoying in recent weeks.

That being said, Super Tuesday is in just a few days, and Joe Biden hasn’t campaigned at all or established any sort of infrastructure in those states. Is this win really going to help his chances in any meaningful way?

It will be fascinating to see.

Obviously, the states to watch are going to be California and Texas.

In California, Bernie Sanders currently stands at 34%, while his closest competitor Elizabeth Warren stands at 17%. The rest of the candidates don’t even meet the viability threshold. This potential “Biden bump” is not going to bring Joe from 8% all the way to 15 in less than three days. But it might be enough to bring him to around 12 or 13, and that bump isn’t going to be coming from people leaving Bernie. These results might ensure that everyone other than Bernie leaves California with nothing more than a handful of delegates if any at all. Biden’s South Carolina victory could end up being favorable for Bernie in the most delegate rich state in the country.

On the other hand, Biden currently trails Bernie by just single digits in Texas.

If Bernie pulls off a victory in Texas that’s by more than a couple points, that will be massive, and in combination with the guaranteed California victory it could be difficult for any of the other candidates to overcome. But if Biden squeaks out a victory in Texas or virtually ties with Bernie, then I would say this is once again a race and a brokered convention is all but inevitable. In my view Bernie is still probably going to win Texas, but tonight certainly upped Biden’s odds.

I do not want to minimize the extent of Joe Biden’s victory in South Carolina. It’s shaping up to be a very significant one. But it will be fascinating and nerve wracking to watch Texas in particular. While there is no doubt in my mind that he is going to do better than previously expected, the fact that there is so little time along with no ground game efforts in any of the Super Tuesday states is leading me to believe it could possibly be a short lived victory. But that short lived victory, if it affects Texas in Biden’s favor, might change the long term dynamics of the race indefinitely.

This race is going to come down to Bernie, Biden, and Bloomberg, and it could very well be all but decided in just a few short days. We shall soon find out if Joe Biden’s impressive win tonight might be enough to potentially extend this race all the way to the convention.

Written by

Lauren is a writer & leftist with analysis on topics related to politics & policy. She can be reached at LaurenMartinchek@gmail.com or Twitter @xlauren_mx

Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store