Has the Biden Fade Finally Begun?
Is the slip in the polls the left has been hoping for finally here?
In the midst of a full and contentious Democratic Primary, Joe Biden’s debate performances have been lackluster to put it kindly. Unfortunately for him, his campaign appearances in between, especially more recently, have not boded so well for him either.
It’s no secret that many across the political spectrum have begun to take notice that Biden’s mind seems to have aged. Significantly. Recently, Biden put this on full display when he confused the locations of the two most recent mass shootings, and said “poor kids are just as smart as white kids”. While those two instances might have been a gaffe and a window in to his mindset, perhaps the most recent clear sign of cognitive deterioration came when he declared that he was Vice President during the Parkland school shooting, and met with the survivors. As we all know, he had in fact been out of office for over a year.
Well, shock polls out of Iowa seem to indicate that voters could be beginning to take notice of these issues.
According to Mediaite:
“The Iowa Starting Line-Change Research poll showed Warren with a commanding lead in the Iowa Caucus, with 28% of likely Iowa caucus-goers in the poll choosing her. This is an 11-point lead over her nearest competitors, according to Iowa Starting Line.”
While I’m wary of any poll showing such a drastic change from what we have seen to be true, it’s certainly important to keep in mind that it could be a clear indication that the tides appear to be changing, and Joe Biden may no longer be the clear favorite to win the nomination. While Elizabeth Warren apparently gaining significant ground in Iowa and in national polls, Bernie Sanders is leading in New Hampshire and is also performing well in national polls. We should also note that his diverse, broad cross country voting demographics are a window in to the strength of his campaign as well. There’s no doubt that both Sanders and Warren are emerging as forces to be reckoned with, each with their own unique niches and appeals.
All of these signs beg the question: Has the slip in Biden’s poll numbers finally begun to take hold? Will we finally see him fall in to second place?
Of course, I’m wary of any one single poll, and it’s certainly difficult to place exactly where each candidate stands, but it seems to be that it’s growing steadily more consistent that Joe Biden is in fact beginning to fade. While some might dismiss this as wishful thinking, it was actually Joe Biden’s own campaign leaks that solidified this in my mind.
According to The Hill, at least some of Joe Biden’s allies have been floating the idea to his staff of limiting campaign events as the primary heats up this fall. The report says:
“Allies to Joe Biden have been floating the idea of altering the former vice president’s schedule in an effort to reduce the gaffes he has made in recent days.
The allies, growing increasingly nervous about Biden’s verbal flubs, have said it’s an approach that’s been suggested to campaign officials on the heels of the former vice president’s stumbles.”
Regardless of whether or not his campaign will actually take the donors suggestions, the simple fact that this idea has been floating and is out there to the public definitely does not bode well at all for the Biden campaign. Instantaneously, it plants the idea in our minds that he is not up for the job, and causes voters to question whether or not he is ready for an almost certainly vigorous and heated general election. In a campaign where Joe Biden is already limiting his exposure to the public, I have to wonder why they think this would make him look better in the eyes of the voters.
Perhaps internal polling is so bad, they really see no other alternative.
As we head in to the fall, and a larger number of voters begin to pay attention, we might get a better, more solidified idea of where each candidate actually stands in the eyes of the public. While I’m impressed with Elizabeth Warren’s rise, we should also consider the idea that Bernie Sanders might be underestimated in polls just as much as Joe Biden might be overestimated. He has a history of over-performing, and that shouldn’t be taken lightly. All that being said we are a long way out, but I’m growing more and more confident that Joe Biden will not be the nominee. One thing is for certain, if he does in fact fall in to second place, there will be no coming back.
The question is: will Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders emerge on top?